It's Week 13 already.... only 6 more weeks of regular season football left. So far it has been the year of the backup QB, Mike white is starting for his 2nd week in a row over the disgraced baby face Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett is picking up steam with his connection to Pickens, and Geno Smith will likely be the comeback player of the year. These backups are heavily featured in this week's best bets starting with:
Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ LA Rams
The Rams sold their future for a Superbowl.... and it worked!!! but now they're dealing with the hangover and it's been a doozy. Even without the many…many injuries, a -7 line would still be enticing in this overrated vs underrated showdown.
Lets start with the injuries, Matthew Stafford is not going to play due to neck injuries causing temporary numbness in his legs and 2 concussions in 3 weeks, he’s an absolute gamer who has played through a broken back but there’s no reason for the Rams to risk further injury to their franchise QB.
The number 1 WR and the overall fantasy point scorer from 2021 (besides QBs) Cooper Kupp is out for the season. The Rams only found offensive success in make it or break it downs with Kupp making other-worldly plays. Now they’re down to 3rd string WRs and an unproven rookie Kyren Williams leading their backfield. Not to mention the newly healthy backup John Wolford at QB.
Arguably the biggest injury loss is that of Aaron Donald. Even active, the Rams defense was struggling with the (arguably) best defensive lineman in the game Aaron Donald not logging a single sack in the last 3 games. Their line couldn’t stop an Arizona offensive line that had 4 2nd 3rd and 4th stringers starting. Donald is a game breaking talent who constantly switches roles to find a weak spot but has played poorly and without the support of other lineman creating opportunities.
The 27 year old Wolford has started 2 games in his career for a total of 1 PaTD and 2 interceptions (plus another INT while playing less than a quarter last year).
The Rams offense will undoubtedly struggle, the only way this game is close is if Kyren Williams pulls off a miracle against Seattle’s middle of the pack 19th DVOA run defense.
Seattle meanwhile has been the surprise of the year. Geno smith is a practical lock for comeback player of the year, and its well deserved. Being featured at top 6 in overall QB power rankings and a top 5 QBR through 13 games! He’s working with a top 5 WR corps with Locket and DK Metcalf ready to breakout any play, while being surehanded in crucial plays.
Meanwhile their Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been putting in his argument for rookie of the year with some solid performances, taking over for the injured Rashaad Penny. Walker has struggled with efficiency in the last 2 games, but he still is a safety blanket in the quick passing game and has nose for the endzone.
The Seahawks have an underrated powerhouse offense especially in the passing game (where the Rams rank at 26th against the pass) and a middle of the road defense against a banged up and demoralized Rams.
Bull Case: I expect this to be a Seattle blowout in an LA stadium that can barely be called home to the Rams. Seattle will pass the ball with freedom and dominate on defense. The leaderless Rams defense won’t get a break due to Wolford’s inability to sustain drives and will struggle to stop the clock chewing Kenneth Walker. This game is an absolute blowout 27-9 Seattle
Bear Case: The Rams somehow break out of their bottom 5 offense trend against a middle of the road defense through short passes and the upstart Kyren Williams (who put up decent stat lines at Notre dame averaging over 5 yards a carry on 420 attempts with 27 tuddys to boot). The running game funneled through Kenneth Walker will continue to regress allowing the rams to scheme against the pass and prevent big plays and forcing Genos 6th INT of the year. A low scoring affair of 13-17 Seahawks will allow the Rams to beat the spread
Kansas City -2.5 @ Bengals
1st half KC Moneyline
The Chiefs lost 2 games in January to a red-hot Bengals team, rallying towards the Superbowl. They’re out for revenge after giving away a 21-3 lead in the AFC championship game. The Chiefs are known to call vanilla playbooks against teams they expect to easily beat, and then break out all the stops for serious competition, the Bengal’s clearly fall into the latter category.
The big difference this year is the Chiefs defensive line improvement, which is logging a top 5 QB hurry rate of 10%. The Chiefs have a hefty Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR) of 45% (#8 overall) will factor heavily in the game against a bottom of the barrel Bengals Defensive line with a 30th Pass block Win Rate (PBWR) of 48%. The Chiefs also like to blitz logging a 28.5% rate (a top 10 rate)
In the Mahommes era the Chiefs have struggled to cover multi-score spreads but exceed expectations when the spread is less than 3 or as an underdog. Since Mahommes has been QB there have only been 9 games where they’re laying 3 points or less, going 6-2-1 ATS. When they’re an underdog by less than a Touchdown with Mahommes the record is 7-2-1 ATS.
The Kansas city offense is multifaceted without Hill this year. The Bengals were able to shut down hill to hold KC from scoring in their last 2 games. Now the best weapon is Kelce against a Bengals defense that is 13th against the TE. The wide receiver corps is cloudier this year with the short pass JuJu back from injury. Meanwhile their downfield receiver corps is depleted with no Mecole hardman or Kadarius baloney. The Chiefs will have to rely on rookie Skyy More (with 5 catches each of the last 2 games) and the speedy MVS.
The Bengals struggle against cover 2 like Mahommes did last year before adjusting to more short play style of offense. However; the Chiefs primarily use Cover 1 Man Defense which is beatable against the pass when there are 2 speedy WRs with great route running ability. If Chase is healthy, I expect the Safety to go over the top and shut down long passes but potentially leave Tee Higgins on single coverage against a struggling CB. Trent Mcduffie may be able to curtail the newly returned Jamaar Chase but Josh Williams (who gives up the most fantasy points/route on the team and 3rd most in the league) is likely to struggle against Tee Higgins. The CB’s will likely be switching off coverage but I expect Higgins to see more Williams than Chase.
The Bengals offensive success will hinge on Burrows time to pass. With the Chiefs PRWR vs the Bengals PBWR, I expect Burrow to have to get the ball out within 2.5 seconds more than 50% of the time or else face forced errors or possibly sacks. If his struggling offensive line can give him time, he will have success throwing downfield to Higgins. Alternatively, Burrow will have to scramble constantly and find success with QB runs.
Mixon still hasn’t logged a full practice or cleared concussion protocol leaving the door open for Samaje Perine to put up another dominant performance. The 236 pound back can ground and pound and also be a safety valve for Burrow, I don’t see much of a game script difference with Mixon in or out.
Bull Case: The Kansas City defensive line will put unrelenting pressure on Burrow causing mistakes, turnovers and quick 3 and outs. Mahommes will rely on short passes to JuJu and Kelce, Pacheco will be used consistently until play action reads open up the deep pass to MVS and Skyy Moore. KC dominates the Bengals and find success in the red zone 28-13 KC
Bear Case: Burrow will struggle first half and rely on scrambles and improvised runs to keep drives alive. In the second half the chiefs defense will try to contain Burrow, allowing Higgins to find success against the struggling CB Williams. A second half comeback will make for an interesting game going into overtime with another Burrow miracle 30-27 Bengals
Leans
Detroit (-1) Vs Jaguars
Detroit is a completely different team post bye. The Defense has drastically improved, going from bottom 2 to 14th overall DVOA since the bye. Amon-Ra St. Browns health has also been a boon for the offense, averaging a DVOA of 6th overall when healthy.
The Jaguars have been looking better with Lawrence is looking like an NFL pro lately. Theres a recency bias bolstering the jags after a come from behind win last week against the Ravens. The Jags had no business winning that game as they were down 2 scores with 8 minutes left but the ravens blew yet another 4th quarter lead. Lawrence has his timing down, frequently throwing to his receivers before they make their break and check for the ball. This connection is widespread to Kirk and the Jones’ making it difficult for opposing defenses.
Steelers (+1) @ Falcons
Kenny Pickett is finally emerging with his rookie receiver George Pickens. The film has been incredible for this hometown hero against a string of incredibly tough defenses. This week they’re facing a horrible Atlanta secondary coming in at 29th against the pass. Meanwhile the steelers are finally finding success with their running game, with or without Najee Harris. The biggest factor for the Steelers is their run defense which is 8th against the run and at 5th with the game-changer T.J. Watt active (who is expected to play).
Atlanta meanwhile is regressing and relying on a multifaceted rushing game (coincidentally the Steelers defensive strength). Mariota is facing calls to be replaced by rookie Desmond Ridder, but has still been managing to put up decent fantasy points purely with his running game.
The steelers should take their momentum into Atlanta and shut down their 1-dimensional run offense
Houston +7 v Browns
He Who Shall Not Be Named AKA Voldemort is returning to play his first game in 2 years. He will undoubtedly be rusty in the revenge game for his former team. It could be a mentally torturous game for him (assuming he’s capable of remorse and regret) as some of the clients in his court cases will be at the game. This is much more of a narrative driven lean and the metrics don’t fully support this take, Cleveland is a top 3 running offense and Houston is near the bottom in literally everything DVOA wise.
Titans +4.5
The Titans have one of the best rush defenses in the league as well as having future hall of famer Derrick henry. They’ll face a rush first offense in a game script that they seem to be tailored to, control possession and stop the run. The eagles will have to rely on the passing game to A.J. Brown while shutting down the indominable Derrick Henry.
Philadelphia is 2nd against the pass while Tennessee barely passes to the wide receiver and only have 3 wide receiver passing TDs all year. Their Rush defense is 24th, against a Tennessee team that relies on their RBs more than any other teams. This matchup is perfect for the TN offense.
The Titans are a respectable 8-2 against the spread as underdogs in the last 10 games and 19-11 since Vrabel was established as head coach. Pretty much every analyst is on this line which generally scares me away especially given that 79% of the public and 84% of the money is on Tennessee. The books have lowered the spread by a point since money started rolling in so there is some fear (this is a sign that the books are afraid of losing money either due to the relative money on Tennessee or in-house analysis that hints that they will cover the spread)
Saints +3.5 @ TB leaning under 40.5
This call is purely based on division history and the decimated offensive line for Tampa Bay. Tristan Wirfs is out, the best o-lineman remaining on an ad-libbed squad. Mike Evans will likely be beat again in his ongoing feud with Marshawn Lattimore.
Brady has been struggling against the Saints since he joined the Buccaneers, he’s 2-4 at TB against an often inferior team. The last win they logged was due to a fluky 3 interceptions by Jameis Winston. We know the red rocket is capable of doing the same but it’s not wise to bet on flukes. I expect this to be a chippy low scoring affair. Neither offense is high powered and this division matchup will be dominated by the defenses.
Vikings -3 @ jets
Recency bias strikes again with this discounted line. The public saw Mike White looked great last week but it was against a bears defense that could make the Kliff Kingsburry look good. The Vikings have faced some stiff competition lately but their offense is multi-dimensional, with Justin Jefferson doing the impossible and the venerable Dalvin Cook putting in reliable runs. The Jets will not be able to stop a motivated Vikings offense on a playoff run and will struggle to get going against a defense better than the Bears.
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